Thursday, August 28, 2008

MAC to PCs PC to iPhones... Apples journey to Network externalities

Who is going to be MAC to Apples PC in the portables business?  Yea its hard to get your brain around but it that is why Apple has spent so much time and effort courting the development community. (Near free killer development tools and a cheep way to distribute)

 Apple wants to be the company that when choosing a phone potential customers say... "I know MotoNokiaHTC makes a great phone but All the useful applications are on the iPhone" about.  

Apple wants the power of the "Network Externality"  They have aimed their considerable marketing arsenal at all of us and fired their message in every way possible that we want an iPhone, that having an iphone and the internet in your pocket is indispensable. 

 IF I say IF Apple can succeed in getting 50-100 million iPhones into the market AND IF one (OR several) of the developers working on creating applications for the iPhone actually create something that works really well then ....  Then ... 

Everyone will have compelling reasons to use an iPhone because the Network Externality will make the product the product you use simply because it is the one everyone else uses.  

Remember when you (or your grandfather) didn't buy a mac in 1999?  It was because they sucked Outlook or Word or Excel (or some other program) only ran on a Microsoft PC, you had to share files and BLAM no choice your buying a PC.  

Apple currently has as much as 25% of the US smartphone market share.  Their share of this market and the size of the market are going to grow explosively over the next few years (demographics get over it).  

Think about it... Think ahead to the time you will be able to pick up a version of the  iPhone for $50 bucks at the mall kiosk.  There are other phones and they will gain in functionality but really who would not buy the phone that has 2500 (as of this morning) applications you can download?  Apple is going to be one of the dominant players in the smartphone business and  to complete my metaphor Apple/iPhone is PC because it will hold a dominant position in this product category for a very long time. 

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