I and many others made the mistake of thinking that the iPad would kill the Kindle. I mean if you want to read a book you can have either and then oh yea the iPad will bag your groceries and wash the car too, who would buy the Kindle?* Apparently a lot of folks. Amazon is sold out of it's current run of kindles. Macworld story
Looking back I think Amazon may have thought so too. (remember the whole removing publishers thing). We are reminded by reality that one product does not a market make and that there need to be alternatives. The introduction of the iPad into the marketplace may have actually increased sales of kindle. The logic saying that prior to the iPad the kindle was perceived as a fringy device and the introduction of the iPad further legitimized the market for e-readers of which the kindle is both capable and significantly cheaper than the iPad.
Cool
* Either that or amazon only ordered like 10
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Subscription Friction: Time Inc bumping up against Apple Restrictions.
Peter Kafka writes about the magazine industry (Time) struggling to figure out what to do about iPad.
Charge for an app and you get paid but get no customer data (Apple keeps it) and Apple has rejected their sign in app where the model would be similar to the WSJ where you pay Rupert and get a sign-on that gives you access to the paper/Magazine. Magazines want to be able to sell subscriptions and get data about their buyers so that they can market themselves to advertisers. Paying a 30% vig to Apple and not getting any subscription data sows not sound like a winning combination. There are plenty of examples of apps that receive revenue and data about their customers but are still applications in the app store. Just not magazines.
Think about this: Noe Apples point of view. What is the question Apple is trying to answer/control? lets assume for a moment that Apple is OK with magazines external sales then comes the question... What is a magazine? What is effectively different about buying a subscription to Time and buying a subscription to Angry Birds? Every addition step into the structure of the marketplace they are building has huge implications for iPad,Apple and the entire competitive landscape being build around portable connections.
Brave New World
iPad apps/ magazines / media are not going to look like their real world counterparts for very long. We are going to invent (royal we) new ways to consume information that could be radically different from the way we do today
Charge for an app and you get paid but get no customer data (Apple keeps it) and Apple has rejected their sign in app where the model would be similar to the WSJ where you pay Rupert and get a sign-on that gives you access to the paper/Magazine. Magazines want to be able to sell subscriptions and get data about their buyers so that they can market themselves to advertisers. Paying a 30% vig to Apple and not getting any subscription data sows not sound like a winning combination. There are plenty of examples of apps that receive revenue and data about their customers but are still applications in the app store. Just not magazines.
Think about this: Noe Apples point of view. What is the question Apple is trying to answer/control? lets assume for a moment that Apple is OK with magazines external sales then comes the question... What is a magazine? What is effectively different about buying a subscription to Time and buying a subscription to Angry Birds? Every addition step into the structure of the marketplace they are building has huge implications for iPad,Apple and the entire competitive landscape being build around portable connections.
Brave New World
iPad apps/ magazines / media are not going to look like their real world counterparts for very long. We are going to invent (royal we) new ways to consume information that could be radically different from the way we do today
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Links to smarter people than I: Magic Touchpad, iPod Touch
Two interesting bits thought of by people not named Ben...
First Andy Ihnhatko (Beloved Technology pundit) loves the multi touch "Magic Touchpad" (I hate these names)
Andy is right it is fargin cool. The first whiff of the Multi-Touch Mac OS, Apple TV?
Second because the iPod touch is such a second sister to the iPhone it had completely escaped my laser like focus (but not Grubers) that in the three years since the iPod touch came out there are still no competitors to this device.
Taking Stock of Apple Stock:Revenue Projections
Ben Vested
Here is a revenue/stock price analysis of AAPL for the next year by quarter BEFORE adding in announcement of new products.
The only really meaningful assumptions made are as follows.
1, No major downturn to the current world wide economy
2, No major supply constraints for iPhone and iPad
3, Near past trends in other products are good predictors of the near term future performance
2009 coming into 2010 was confusing there was iphone ipod and Mac. 2008-9 economy sucked, The Stock Market sucked. The iMacs were due for renewal, iPod had reached saturation and The deferred accounting for iPhone made understanding earnings going forward. As a result Apples earnings were difficult to predict and a good hunk of that growth had to have built in earnings for Product X.
This year is much clearer. The economy sucks but is at least stable and Apple has shown itself to be reasonably recession proof. Legacy products (Mac and iPod) represent about half of Apples business and are stable mature businesses with some growth. The other half of Apples business are two new products very early in their sales growth. (these two halves add up to about 90% of the business) iPad and iPod. While the iPhone is the coolest gizmo ever the iPad makes it clear that iOS and mobile computing in general will change our computing paradigm.
One open question about Apple revenue is not demand but supply, Can Apple supply the scads of iPads and iPhones the market wants? White iPhone aside I think Apple can meet most iPhone demand but iPad demand caught Apple a little flatfooted. I think supply of iPad will be somewhat constrained for "a while".
Apple announced blow out earnings just a week ago but it is never too soon to think about what future quarters will bring.
Here is a revenue/stock price analysis of AAPL for the next year by quarter BEFORE adding in announcement of new products.
The only really meaningful assumptions made are as follows.
1, No major downturn to the current world wide economy
2, No major supply constraints for iPhone and iPad
3, Near past trends in other products are good predictors of the near term future performance
Apple is currently selling for 19x trailing 12 earnings and has pre-anounced revenue of $18 Billion for Q4 (FY10 ending Sept 30)
2009 coming into 2010 was confusing there was iphone ipod and Mac. 2008-9 economy sucked, The Stock Market sucked. The iMacs were due for renewal, iPod had reached saturation and The deferred accounting for iPhone made understanding earnings going forward. As a result Apples earnings were difficult to predict and a good hunk of that growth had to have built in earnings for Product X.
This year is much clearer. The economy sucks but is at least stable and Apple has shown itself to be reasonably recession proof. Legacy products (Mac and iPod) represent about half of Apples business and are stable mature businesses with some growth. The other half of Apples business are two new products very early in their sales growth. (these two halves add up to about 90% of the business) iPad and iPod. While the iPhone is the coolest gizmo ever the iPad makes it clear that iOS and mobile computing in general will change our computing paradigm.
One open question about Apple revenue is not demand but supply, Can Apple supply the scads of iPads and iPhones the market wants? White iPhone aside I think Apple can meet most iPhone demand but iPad demand caught Apple a little flatfooted. I think supply of iPad will be somewhat constrained for "a while".
Current demand for iPad is far in excess of the 1 million a month Apple spoke of (earnings call) as their pre-release manufacturing bogey. I suspect that as a prudent company Apple built in some headroom in capacity when they made their order so while it may be difficult to triple supply as they may have to replicate an entire line/factory/expertise (or any of a million other things) I suspect that it may be possible that they were (or will in short order) able to significantly increase, even double capacity in the near term. (Total speculation)
These Tables represent EPS and the indicative price per share over the next year given a set of income projections that while bullish are reasonable. (I will go more into the model at a later date). The P/E scale is based on the highest and lowest P/E's Apple has traded at over the last 5 years. What is NOT in the model is whatever product i"X" Apple has planned for market over the next year. So while my analysis is bullish for the products I modeled, it is conservative in that the model does not include any revenue from as yet unannounced products. It is impossible to know what the revenue impact of for example a new Apple TV offering or a completely redone (please please please) Mobile Me service.
These Tables represent EPS and the indicative price per share over the next year given a set of income projections that while bullish are reasonable. (I will go more into the model at a later date). The P/E scale is based on the highest and lowest P/E's Apple has traded at over the last 5 years. What is NOT in the model is whatever product i"X" Apple has planned for market over the next year. So while my analysis is bullish for the products I modeled, it is conservative in that the model does not include any revenue from as yet unannounced products. It is impossible to know what the revenue impact of for example a new Apple TV offering or a completely redone (please please please) Mobile Me service.
| Earnings Per Share Stock Pricing Matrix | ||||||
| YOY Revenue Growth | Quarter | Trailing 12 Earnings per share | 15 | 20 | 25 | 35 |
| 61% | Q3 2010 | 13.28 | 199 | 266 | 332 | 465 |
| 68% | Q4 2010 | 15.00 | 225 | 300 | 375 | 525 |
| 83% | Q1 2011 | 16.88 | 253 | 338 | 422 | 591 |
| 43% | Q2 2011 | 17.85 | 268 | 357 | 446 | 625 |
| 48% | Q3 2011 | 19.56 | 293 | 391 | 489 | 685 |
| Dollars per Share Earnings Multiple Matrix | ||||||
| YOY Revenue Growth | Quarter | Trailing 12 Earnings per share | 200 | 300 | 350 | 400 |
| 61% | Q3 2010 | 13.28 | 15 | 23 | 26 | 30 |
| 68% | Q4 2010 | 15.00 | 13 | 20 | 23 | 27 |
| 83% | Q1 2011 | 16.88 | 12 | 18 | 21 | 24 |
| 43% | Q2 2011 | 17.85 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 22 |
| 48% | Q3 2011 | 19.56 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
Take it for what it is worth. But on a historic growth basis Apple does appear to have significant room to grow. Assuming Apples share price remains at 20x earnings, in that case Apples share price would increase 47% over the next year. There are a couple of price barriers to Apple stock and they are related. The first is issue with growth of the share price as we look at it going forward. While I think the earnings growth for the next year or two is locked in. It is not clear what will happen next The other issue is market cap. Apple has a market cap second only to EXXON. Fricken EXXON.
Lastly, this is not an analysis or rebuke to Apples cash position since it is stellar the cash has little effect on the stock price (Although it is hugely diltutive to ROA). and it is a good thing that they are cash flow positive 1.3billion dollars a month.
That said should pay a dividend. by the end of fiscal 2010 Apple will have ~$50 Billion in cash and marketable securities. There is no rational reason for the company to have this much cash. None.
Really Lastly. The Author is long APPLE. You need to do your own math and most certainly don't follow the advise of semi anonomous internet talking heads to buy your stocks. As a buddy of mine tells me a lot. Don't invest in ANYTHING you do not understand. for most of us that does not leave much.
Lastly, this is not an analysis or rebuke to Apples cash position since it is stellar the cash has little effect on the stock price (Although it is hugely diltutive to ROA). and it is a good thing that they are cash flow positive 1.3billion dollars a month.
That said should pay a dividend. by the end of fiscal 2010 Apple will have ~$50 Billion in cash and marketable securities. There is no rational reason for the company to have this much cash. None.
Really Lastly. The Author is long APPLE. You need to do your own math and most certainly don't follow the advise of semi anonomous internet talking heads to buy your stocks. As a buddy of mine tells me a lot. Don't invest in ANYTHING you do not understand. for most of us that does not leave much.
Friday, July 23, 2010
LG indicates iPad supply will be constrained into Q2 next year
Reuters reports this morning that LG cannot keep up with Apple demand for iPad displays.
The fact that they are constrained in the short run is old news that they will not catch up until 2011 is a big deal.
During their earnings Call Apple was asked several times in different ways about the nature of the current pipeline contstraints of both iPad and iPhone 4s. And while they would not say when they will get demand/supply in balance I for one left the call with the impression that there were no particular issues that would prevent a reasonably short term ramp to a much bigger number.
Tim Cook...
Both of these products, the iPad and specifically the iPhone 4, we had backlog at the end of last quarter that we were not able to fill. And currently, we are still selling both of those products as fast as we can make them. So we still are quoting longer lead times than we like and we’re looking around the clock to try to get supply and demand at balance.
Early in the questions Tim Cook mentioned that they targeted a million iPads a month for the launch but have been blown away by demand. Why did no one ask the question... How blown away? 1 million 2 million? So we know they are making more but not likely MANY more than 1mm a month right now and LG is saying they are nog going to be able to meet Apples current demands until Q2 2011. Isn't that when V2 will be out with the magical retina display and front facing face time camera?
Again Tim Cook
because if it turns out that the iPad cannibalizes PCs then I think it's fantastic for us, because there is a lot PCs to cannibalize. It's still a big market.
I took this comment initially as a little snarky but when you take it at face value it is indicative that Tim Cook believes it is at least possible that the iPad becomes a truly transformative device that ultimately (in a much later version) replaces the PC
off topic a little, ok a lot. Why did not a single analyst ask about Apples Cash position? I know we are going to get a crap answer but at least ask. More on this later.
The fact that they are constrained in the short run is old news that they will not catch up until 2011 is a big deal.
During their earnings Call Apple was asked several times in different ways about the nature of the current pipeline contstraints of both iPad and iPhone 4s. And while they would not say when they will get demand/supply in balance I for one left the call with the impression that there were no particular issues that would prevent a reasonably short term ramp to a much bigger number.
Tim Cook...
Both of these products, the iPad and specifically the iPhone 4, we had backlog at the end of last quarter that we were not able to fill. And currently, we are still selling both of those products as fast as we can make them. So we still are quoting longer lead times than we like and we’re looking around the clock to try to get supply and demand at balance.
Early in the questions Tim Cook mentioned that they targeted a million iPads a month for the launch but have been blown away by demand. Why did no one ask the question... How blown away? 1 million 2 million? So we know they are making more but not likely MANY more than 1mm a month right now and LG is saying they are nog going to be able to meet Apples current demands until Q2 2011. Isn't that when V2 will be out with the magical retina display and front facing face time camera?
Again Tim Cook
because if it turns out that the iPad cannibalizes PCs then I think it's fantastic for us, because there is a lot PCs to cannibalize. It's still a big market.
I took this comment initially as a little snarky but when you take it at face value it is indicative that Tim Cook believes it is at least possible that the iPad becomes a truly transformative device that ultimately (in a much later version) replaces the PC
off topic a little, ok a lot. Why did not a single analyst ask about Apples Cash position? I know we are going to get a crap answer but at least ask. More on this later.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Antennagate the Because we Can't Let it Go Edition
I thought it made sense to apply a little critical though (ok very little) to Antennagate the press conference.
What is interesting about the drop call rate is that according to Anand Lal Shimpi from Anandtech (on TWIT Sunday iTunes link) the iPhone 4 really does have a measurably more sensitive antenna and will hold onto a call in weaker areas better than previous iPhones but then he went onto explain that that in their testing the iPhone4 did have more dropped calls in stronger signal areas where the iPhone 3GS did not. Are you fascinated yet I mean this is scintillating stuff! OK so what you say is the point.
Add the fact that Steve Made clear in his presentation that they actually do not know why the drop rates are higher than the 3GS.
What if the antenna is in fact performing exactly as designed and the drops have nothing to do with the antenna? ( I know but you can put your finger on the thing and the bars drop forget about the frickin bars for a minute)
As one possibility not because I think this is the solution but just as an example... What if the issue is something different about the way the software controls the radio in medium signal areas (ostensibly to improve battery life) that is buggy or needs tweaking?
Other stuff
It also seemed very clear to me that Consumer reports sucker punched Apple. They effectively outlined the problem, and posed what they thought was solution. Apple came out and provided the solution Consumer reports telegraphed would make them happy and BLAM not good enough.
Why just AT&T returns? I mean why not Apples? look no black hats here just a weird omission.
I have seen it other places but the whole 1 out of a hundred thing was intentionally designed to minimize the size of the issue. based on all the numbers I have seen none of which may be right the droped call difference is somewhere between 10 and 50% worse than the iPhone 3gs. Try this.... Only one more out of a hundred flights crash ( you get the point)
Look this is a real issue but it is not the reason not to buy the phone. Apple looks standoffish they (Steve) says stupid things but over time when confronted with issues with their products Apple has the right thing
Look for my semi annual where is my dividend rant coming soon to this blog...
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Flipboard: an Electric Motor in a Steam Powered World
I do not write about APPs. I am just not drawn to reviews. So this is not a review per-se That said... What is cool about Flipbook is what it represents. Innovation. I downloaded Flipboard and spent like 10 minutes just flipping the page back and forth. It is just so frickin cool. It is not a finished product but that is beside the point.
When the first electric motors came into use they were used to replace water/steam power in mills. Mills were designed and optimized over time to make effective use of centralized power. So when electric motors came along the only way people saw to use them was as a substitute for the water power. It was years and years before factories and equipment began to be designed around the unique qualities of the new type of motor.
The iPad is an electric motor in a water and steam powered world and Flipboard is the most obvious example I have seen yet of what the future will bring. We have no idea what this platform will look like in 10 years time. All the existing magazines on the iPad.... Steam baby.
Look I am not saying Flipboard will survive or replace Wired/Time/People Magazines but something is going to. The vast majority of stuff that has been produced so far has been regressive,trying to recreate the experience you get with a paper magazine.
At its most basic Flipboard is an RSS/twitter/facebook reader that aggregates your social feeds in a very unique and pleasing way. The Tweets in your stream are presented with the entire content of the link for you to page thru. The feeling is very much like the serendipity of reading the sunday paper.
And it is "Made with Love in Palo Alto, California"
The Wow factor is strong with this one . Itunes Link, Macworld Review link
The writer has no affiliation with Flipboard or Palo Alto although both seem pretty cool. I am long Apple.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
My Q3 guess
A point estimate is crap but fun anyway 3.30 per share on 15 billion in income. The real wildcard is what the gross margin will be.
Based on the fact that current iMacs are getting long in the tooth (read higher margin) and iPhone continues to grow as a percent of total business that gross margins will stay over 40%
A real number is somewhere between 2.90 and 4.40 a share.
There will hopefully be lots of good information on the call about pipeline constraints since current demand for iPhone and iPad appears to be outstripping supply.
Listen in at. www.apple.com/investor
5:00 pm Eastern.
Based on the fact that current iMacs are getting long in the tooth (read higher margin) and iPhone continues to grow as a percent of total business that gross margins will stay over 40%
A real number is somewhere between 2.90 and 4.40 a share.
There will hopefully be lots of good information on the call about pipeline constraints since current demand for iPhone and iPad appears to be outstripping supply.
Listen in at. www.apple.com/investor
5:00 pm Eastern.
Apple Earnings Preview
Ben Vested
First I was going to do a bunch of tables and charts and then I was going to do some really cool finance voo-do all over it but then I found out Andy Zaky already did a fine job on that. Here. I did do a couple of charts you will find below.
This will be more information than you require (hat tip Hodgman) but here it is anyway. I follow Apple as a company because (within normal healthy adult limits) I love tech, Apples products, the way they go about their business and the fact that they are a large successful easy to follow company. I invest in them because in addition to all of those things, their business and the engine that drives their earnings can be understood. Look, GE is a great company but based on their published financial statements three PHD's with a Ouiji Board and a bag full of darts could not figure out what is going to happen next with the company.
Apple is simple by comparison. iPod, iPad, iPhone, Mac, and other stuff. Apple is unique in the hardware space in that they make coin... Apple is making money in two industries populated by companies fighting to do their best impression of Eastern Airlines (commodity out of business). Nokia by far the largest maker of mobile phones by unit sales is losing money. Dell the largest US maker of PC's has a 3% profit margin. Their relative performance in the stock market over the last 6 years tells the story.
Apple is a hardware company, and they win because they innovate. They refuse to compete on price and over time have produced time and again products that customers are willing to pay a premium for. Apples ability to grow in the future will be tied to this simple equation.
You can argue at the margins but something between 45-55% of the companies earnings this year will be derived from product classes that did not exist before June of 2007. iPhone came out in June 2007 and will have something over 20 billion in revenue this year. iPad just came out this year and already is lighting up the revenue meter it should represent ~8% of 2010 revenue.
Here are two charts that show both revenue growth AND the contribution to growth by product.
This is revenue growth in dollars broken out by product.
Note 2010 projections are from Andy's analysis, they are as likely to be right as any (a little optimistic) I used Apples presentation for products because It shows how the growth in Macintosh has been driven almost exclusively by laptops over the last 5 years, the last 12 months being an exception. I have written about this before but Apple OWNS the over 1,000 computer market. During a time when Dell and Asus are fighting over fifty bucks for a netbook Apple has been able to get the average price per unit for desktops to go up.
Iphone is obviously experiencing explosive growth as is iPad. What has been surprising about the iPhone is that three years after launch the iPhone has maintained a PPU of over 600 bucks. Estimated margins on iPhone are 60% so as the product mix moves towards iPhone Apples overall margin continues to expand.
This chart is the same data presented as a percentage. It is here that you can see the relative importance of new products as a percentage of earnings. The three big growing categories iPhone, iPad and Other music and related services (read this as APP store). This category is going to grow like Kudzu in July over the next few years.
Longer posts coming on the following
Apples Cash position. Apple is piling up cash at a rate that will force it to change its current accumulate cash forever strategy or not. Currently they have about 47 bucks a share in cash and short term securities. It is a stupid amount of cash that management cannot with rational argument hold onto given that they have zero debt and are continuing to accumulate cash at a rate of OVER 1 billion a month. More on this later.
What happens next. Apple will not make any new product announcements today but as sure as Microsoft will announce products that they will never make, the NEW is coming and it will be Magical and Revolutionary from a profitability standpoint .
Risks. Apple is now huge. a lot of the poor PR in the last year has had to do with this size. Size is also an issue in that they are running up against the law of large numbers in terms of their ability to grow. Exxon Mobil is the only US company with a larger Market Cap and in order to maintain its current growth rate would have to create 20 billion in revenue next year that it did not have this year. I am not saying it won't happen just pointing out that it is a big number. Life after Steve not a happy thought. There are others... Margins.
More after the announcements tomorrow.
The author of this post is long Apple but makes no recommendation for purchasing equity positions in the company. Your grown people make your own decisions. The author has no holdings of Eastern Air, Dell, Nokia or Greek sovereign debt.
First I was going to do a bunch of tables and charts and then I was going to do some really cool finance voo-do all over it but then I found out Andy Zaky already did a fine job on that. Here. I did do a couple of charts you will find below.
This will be more information than you require (hat tip Hodgman) but here it is anyway. I follow Apple as a company because (within normal healthy adult limits) I love tech, Apples products, the way they go about their business and the fact that they are a large successful easy to follow company. I invest in them because in addition to all of those things, their business and the engine that drives their earnings can be understood. Look, GE is a great company but based on their published financial statements three PHD's with a Ouiji Board and a bag full of darts could not figure out what is going to happen next with the company.
Apple is simple by comparison. iPod, iPad, iPhone, Mac, and other stuff. Apple is unique in the hardware space in that they make coin... Apple is making money in two industries populated by companies fighting to do their best impression of Eastern Airlines (commodity out of business). Nokia by far the largest maker of mobile phones by unit sales is losing money. Dell the largest US maker of PC's has a 3% profit margin. Their relative performance in the stock market over the last 6 years tells the story.
Apple is a hardware company, and they win because they innovate. They refuse to compete on price and over time have produced time and again products that customers are willing to pay a premium for. Apples ability to grow in the future will be tied to this simple equation.
You can argue at the margins but something between 45-55% of the companies earnings this year will be derived from product classes that did not exist before June of 2007. iPhone came out in June 2007 and will have something over 20 billion in revenue this year. iPad just came out this year and already is lighting up the revenue meter it should represent ~8% of 2010 revenue.
Here are two charts that show both revenue growth AND the contribution to growth by product.
This is revenue growth in dollars broken out by product.
Note 2010 projections are from Andy's analysis, they are as likely to be right as any (a little optimistic) I used Apples presentation for products because It shows how the growth in Macintosh has been driven almost exclusively by laptops over the last 5 years, the last 12 months being an exception. I have written about this before but Apple OWNS the over 1,000 computer market. During a time when Dell and Asus are fighting over fifty bucks for a netbook Apple has been able to get the average price per unit for desktops to go up.
Iphone is obviously experiencing explosive growth as is iPad. What has been surprising about the iPhone is that three years after launch the iPhone has maintained a PPU of over 600 bucks. Estimated margins on iPhone are 60% so as the product mix moves towards iPhone Apples overall margin continues to expand.
This chart is the same data presented as a percentage. It is here that you can see the relative importance of new products as a percentage of earnings. The three big growing categories iPhone, iPad and Other music and related services (read this as APP store). This category is going to grow like Kudzu in July over the next few years.
Longer posts coming on the following
Apples Cash position. Apple is piling up cash at a rate that will force it to change its current accumulate cash forever strategy or not. Currently they have about 47 bucks a share in cash and short term securities. It is a stupid amount of cash that management cannot with rational argument hold onto given that they have zero debt and are continuing to accumulate cash at a rate of OVER 1 billion a month. More on this later.
What happens next. Apple will not make any new product announcements today but as sure as Microsoft will announce products that they will never make, the NEW is coming and it will be Magical and Revolutionary from a profitability standpoint .
Risks. Apple is now huge. a lot of the poor PR in the last year has had to do with this size. Size is also an issue in that they are running up against the law of large numbers in terms of their ability to grow. Exxon Mobil is the only US company with a larger Market Cap and in order to maintain its current growth rate would have to create 20 billion in revenue next year that it did not have this year. I am not saying it won't happen just pointing out that it is a big number. Life after Steve not a happy thought. There are others... Margins.
More after the announcements tomorrow.
The author of this post is long Apple but makes no recommendation for purchasing equity positions in the company. Your grown people make your own decisions. The author has no holdings of Eastern Air, Dell, Nokia or Greek sovereign debt.
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Peeve of the day iTunes Advertising
One of the benefits of Mac ownership has been NOT having to wade thru crapware on my computer all the time. Now comes this
CRAP!
Make it end Apple
Regardless of the relative merit of MobileMe (not good for me but I am hopeful long term) I find this type of advertising putoffish and invasive.
Now, lets try a thought experiment. Assume that customers that sync their phones are better Apple customers than non-syncers. (we know who you are). The presumption being that syncers use their phone more, buy more apps, and are happier overall with their user experience and as a result more likely to buy another phone or even better MORE apple products.
Do you think having to click thru an add every time I want to sync my phone makes me want to sync more or less? It adds friction. like a paywall or even a registration wall does. (see Rupert Murdoch Times 60% traffic drop off for Free restration wall went up)
There are two lessons here.
First, If their is value in the product people will find their way to it. Make the product better.
Second, and it is a correlary to the first. Advertising it more make increase sales but it will not increase satisfaction and repeat customers (see rule number one)
Lastly, I know there are opt outs for email marketing and even for iAds so if there is an opt out for iTunes I have not found it yet. If I find it. OR if the add goes away so will my Peeve.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Bad day to be a case manufacturer
I think the most important news to come out of today's press conference was missed by most if not all of the scads of reporting firepower assembled to record the event.
Apple is in the case business because of the failure of existing manufacturers to keep their collective mouths shut about upcoming products.
Can you imagine being the CEO of an accessory maker and having to hear that today? Ouch. It reminds me of the take the cookies away from all the kids until whoever scratched dads car door comes forward. ( it wasn't me really ).
Steve Jobs...
Maybe they already knew they were screwed, maybe Phil or Steve told them just how screwed.
But now they have been screwed.
Apple is in the case business because of the failure of existing manufacturers to keep their collective mouths shut about upcoming products.
Can you imagine being the CEO of an accessory maker and having to hear that today? Ouch. It reminds me of the take the cookies away from all the kids until whoever scratched dads car door comes forward. ( it wasn't me really ).
Steve Jobs...
Sometimes websites buy stolen property and they get out there... and case makers have a history of showing off their new cases for our new products. The case vendors haven't had a history of helping to keep our work under wraps
Maybe they already knew they were screwed, maybe Phil or Steve told them just how screwed.
But now they have been screwed.
Antennagate: The pre presser briefing
Ben Vested
Only a few people know what apple will announce at tomorrows press conference. Every news outlet in the country will be covering the pressed as the biggest story of the day...
Did anyone notice BP stopped the oil today on day 90 (maybe)
This silly season frenzy is fun ( maybe not so much for the few at the center of this), a welcome diversion from the real news that is so serious and depressing. There are also a huge number of stakeholders in the outcome. The two to three million of us that already have the phone-4 the 80 million of us that have older iPhones. The stockholders, press/blogosphere.
Friday afternoon coverage will be wall to wall.
The facts have been well covered so I will not repeat them here. For my part I think that there is a perceptible reception issue with the new phone. That said, I have used mine daily since launch day I find it delightful to use with significantly better coverage and sound quality than the previous phone.
The real issue is that it is an issue. At every opportunity since the stunning 1.6 million unit launch weekend. Apple has stepped on it's collective wiener. (Hold Different?)
Apple is going to have 60 billion dollars in revenue this year they are second only to Exxon in US market cap. They are no longer the little guy they are no longer "The Rest Of Us".
I do not know what he announcement will be. I do expect it will be definitive and final. It is fun watching everyone try to guess. Who knew RF engineering could be cool?
Here are a couple of great links to articles summarizing the events of the last three weeks.
Anantech
A little geeky but very clear follow up on the actual issue and performance. Link
Arrington
He famously does not use an iPhone. Interesting take Link
Only a few people know what apple will announce at tomorrows press conference. Every news outlet in the country will be covering the pressed as the biggest story of the day...
Did anyone notice BP stopped the oil today on day 90 (maybe)
This silly season frenzy is fun ( maybe not so much for the few at the center of this), a welcome diversion from the real news that is so serious and depressing. There are also a huge number of stakeholders in the outcome. The two to three million of us that already have the phone-4 the 80 million of us that have older iPhones. The stockholders, press/blogosphere.
Friday afternoon coverage will be wall to wall.
The facts have been well covered so I will not repeat them here. For my part I think that there is a perceptible reception issue with the new phone. That said, I have used mine daily since launch day I find it delightful to use with significantly better coverage and sound quality than the previous phone.
The real issue is that it is an issue. At every opportunity since the stunning 1.6 million unit launch weekend. Apple has stepped on it's collective wiener. (Hold Different?)
Apple is going to have 60 billion dollars in revenue this year they are second only to Exxon in US market cap. They are no longer the little guy they are no longer "The Rest Of Us".
I do not know what he announcement will be. I do expect it will be definitive and final. It is fun watching everyone try to guess. Who knew RF engineering could be cool?
Here are a couple of great links to articles summarizing the events of the last three weeks.
Anantech
A little geeky but very clear follow up on the actual issue and performance. Link
Arrington
He famously does not use an iPhone. Interesting take Link
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Under Construction
Under Construction.
BnVseted is being reconstituted, rebuilt, and reworked. My Appologies for the font and layout obsessed in the world my CSS is non existant and my taste... well you can see. (best for the time being to follow RSS)
Layout suggestions are welcome as are suggestions for hosting.
BnVseted is being reconstituted, rebuilt, and reworked. My Appologies for the font and layout obsessed in the world my CSS is non existant and my taste... well you can see. (best for the time being to follow RSS)
Layout suggestions are welcome as are suggestions for hosting.
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