Apple TV: The Second Coming or iBrick

The folks at TUAW caught wind of a rumor regarding a possible update of Apple TV coming this Tuesday Sept 30th.  

No Predictions here as to what may or may not happen except to say that the current version of Apple TV is the only and original version of the Apple TV.  It is entirely possible that Apple TV is being updated without ANY real functionality change except to upgrade the hard drive and possibly the video output.  But heck maybe this is the iBrick, the second coming of the Apple TV.

If it is...  Than this is a good time to update my thoughts from a prior post regarding Apple TV.

To sell broadly Apple TV must Replace some or all of the products and services that it currently competes against.  It must be a Set Top Box Replacement.  It must be an effective replacement for Blockbuster/Netflix and it must have a working PVR. 

By broadly the market must reach beyond us geeks so ruling out those of us using any Elgato Product. (sorry Elgato your market is gadget geeks, but you knew that) 

In addition, and this is the deal breaker, Apple has to get hollywood to play along.  Without content equivalent to NetBuster (netflixBlockbuster)  say 95% of new releases and a back catalog of thousands,(Currently there are less than 1,900 movies available for rent in iTunes)Apple will only have limited sales with Apple TV.  

If they did it it would be too expensive for broad acceptance initially but who knows maybe this is the product they "Crush" their margins with.  Certainly the integration with iPhone/iPod Touch would be kick ass.

Longer Term Apple really wants to be the company to provide integrated home entertainment solutions but we are not likely ready for that yet.  For Now Apple TV Remains a serious Hobby.  The products existence gives Apple a reason to assign resources and keep tabs on the market.  

We will see on Tuesday.

Apple TV: The Last Ten Feet, the Unification

The last 10 feet has become the mythical love object of all tech companies seeking a path to your living room and it would appear that Apple is uniquely poised to provide a product that could seize the imaginations of America as they bring about the Unification...

Apple TV has been thru two generations.  After extensive research and a month in the himalayas meditating  it has become clear what SOME of the issues have been that have kept Apple TV in the "Hobby" Category and some of the hurdles that must be jumped in order for the product to reach wider acceptance.

What we have now.

The Cable co. Gives you a set top box for free.  It has limited rental capabilities and perhaps a PVR (For which you pay a subscription).  We tolerate it because it is free.

DVD player, either we use NetFlix or make weekly trips to Blockbuster but this is the way we rent movies.

We watch TV for free when we want and tolerate commercials because thats the way it has always been.  It works, and we need a compelling reason to change to something new.

Possible or claimed unifiers

XBOX (read jetplane in your living room)

PS3 (cool but ew)

VUDU (like Apple TV without Apple)

Apple TV

None have taken off in any significant way.  

What Apple TV has not been  (but maybe possibly in the future)

Cheap or subsidized by Cable co.

Universal acceptance by content providers for rental and or purchase

PVR.  (With a fee)

Think about the things that "We" (geeks, who else reads this?) want Apple TV to be and think about the things Apple can actually do or has control over and add in the thing that JQ Public will actually buy and you can begin to see that expectations are impossibly high. In the end there are few reasons to replace what you already have in place.

To sell broadly Apple TV must Replace some or all of the products and services that it currently competes against.  It must be a Set Top Box Replacement.  It must be an effective replacement for Blockbuster/Netflix and it must have a working PVR.  It must do all that AND sell for like 30 bucks apiece (not really but close, Because thats what Moto sells theirs for).

Content providers have a healthy distrust of Apple and of digital distribution. Many new releases are not available for Apple TV.  There are currently 2,700 (vs 6000 Netflix) movies available on iTunes and many current releases are only available on DVD.

Apple TV is expensive to make.  There is a lot of tech in there and early reports upon the release of V2. were that the margins were among the narrowest of all of Apples products.

Apple Also knows Apple TV has the potential to cannibalize home PC Sales because if you can do email and internet on it, some people could use it as a home PC and forgo the PC purchase.

It is embarrassing that in 2008 we cannot easily (BY EASILY I MEAN EASY FOR MY MOM) get content from our computers to our televisions.  I think that there will be a time that we will be able to seamlessly watch what we want where we want how we want but that day is not today.

Top five things Apple TV need to succeed

1, Content.  

2, Content. 

3. Content.

4. Something a little less important than content COST

5.  Something irrelevant except that it takes up space in order to keep the list FIVE.  EASY to understand and use.