Android comes to Play: GooMo and the Future

Ahhh the future.  Three weeks ago we knew there would always be investment banks....

The first "GPhone" is being released today and so is born the first credible competition for the iPhone.  Do not misunderstand, the phone released today could be terrible.  

It is the first credible competition for the iPhone.  Google does not care about the device, they continue to look for ways to expand and protect their search and advertising franchise.

Great Article by Greg Sterling outlines the market and how the iPhone has been really a "proof of concept"  device that will lead to other, more and better devices.  Regardless of what WinMo and Blackberry had done up until the iPhone was introduced, they did not actually get used in a way that makes the internet the internet.

There are a lot of WinMo and Blackberry devices sold and in use, its just that they are not used for anything but texting and email.  (as measured by hits )  [if WinMo is WinMo, should Android be GooMo?]

To Google the internet is advertising and the "Mobile internet" is the future.  Andy Rubin points out in the Google Blog There are more mobile phones in use today by people that have NEVER had a PC (of any kind) than there are currently PC's.  To grow Google must be as ubiquitous in Mobile as they are on our desktops.  It is not important to Google that Android be anything but a minor success, they just need it to be enough of a threat to insure that Google will continue to serve mobile advertising on many devices.

So later today when people are talking about how Great or terrible the actual device is remember that this is the first of what will be MANY from many competitors.  WinMo will eventually be trashed by Microsoft and they will start from scratch and there may be even more players that we have never heard of that will innovate their way into the space.  The point is that in a couple of years there will be better internet enabled phones than we have now available from a number of sources.  

Today is the day that Apple begins to give up some of its 100% market-share in the next generation of mobile platforms. (of which the iPhone is the only current offering).  

We know that there will be insane growth in this market for the next couple of years and that we all will get to benefit from innovations in the devices /methods / cost.  We do not know what those devices would be.   For the Near term iPhone will play "PC" to Googles "Mac"/Android.  It will be fun to watch.

MAC to PCs PC to iPhones... Apples journey to Network externalities

Who is going to be MAC to Apples PC in the portables business?  Yea its hard to get your brain around but it that is why Apple has spent so much time and effort courting the development community. (Near free killer development tools and a cheep way to distribute)

 Apple wants to be the company that when choosing a phone potential customers say... "I know MotoNokiaHTC makes a great phone but All the useful applications are on the iPhone" about.  

Apple wants the power of the "Network Externality"  They have aimed their considerable marketing arsenal at all of us and fired their message in every way possible that we want an iPhone, that having an iphone and the internet in your pocket is indispensable. 

 IF I say IF Apple can succeed in getting 50-100 million iPhones into the market AND IF one (OR several) of the developers working on creating applications for the iPhone actually create something that works really well then ....  Then ... 

Everyone will have compelling reasons to use an iPhone because the Network Externality will make the product the product you use simply because it is the one everyone else uses.  

Remember when you (or your grandfather) didn't buy a mac in 1999?  It was because they sucked Outlook or Word or Excel (or some other program) only ran on a Microsoft PC, you had to share files and BLAM no choice your buying a PC.  

Apple currently has as much as 25% of the US smartphone market share.  Their share of this market and the size of the market are going to grow explosively over the next few years (demographics get over it).  

Think about it... Think ahead to the time you will be able to pick up a version of the  iPhone for $50 bucks at the mall kiosk.  There are other phones and they will gain in functionality but really who would not buy the phone that has 2500 (as of this morning) applications you can download?  Apple is going to be one of the dominant players in the smartphone business and  to complete my metaphor Apple/iPhone is PC because it will hold a dominant position in this product category for a very long time.