On Analysts and Earnings Apple Reports today

This afternoon Apple will report another record quarter with both unit sales and revenues the best in the companies history.

If you knew before the announcement how many computers, phones, music players, Apple sold AND how much revenue they took in, you still could not reliably come up with a per share earnings number within 10% of what will actually be announced.

Analysts come up with a number because we (the investing public) goad them into it. It is a spectator sport. Some analysts will come closer to the actual number than others. Assuming they do not have inside information it is simply chance. Most of the analysts know this simple fact yet they submit to the kabuki because, well, they want to make a living.

Here, I can prove it.
If you knew Apples Gross Revenue all you would have to do to come up with an earnings number is accurately predict gross margin and tax rate. (that's all?) so on earnings of say 8 billion a 4% difference in gross margin would indicate a range of ~ 23 cents a share. Compound that with a 4% difference in tax rate (12 cents) and you could be off by 35 cents a share. And you knew the earnings!

Is that enough of a disclaimer?
Because I have to...
1.22 on 8.3 billion in Revenue

Writer is long Apple. Don't believe a thing he says, he is not particularly stable as evidenced by his willingness to predict (guess) earnings KNOWING he cannot possibly be correct.

So listen to what the Analysts say about the business

iPhone Ubiquity

The iPhone is the coolest gizmo I have ever owned.  Nothing, compares.  Not my baseball cards, my Camera, stereo high def-TV, convertible, toaster oven, None of it.  Not even my Mac Plus (which back in the day was pretty badass)

The iPhone is simply put the single most compelling computing device to hit the market since the first PCs 30 years ago. 

It is clear that the iPhone as a handset and platform are so dramatically different and better than current market offerings that sales growth will continue to be freakish.

Gene Munster Put Apple on its "Alpha"  (Piper Jaffray)List this week indicating that there is significant short term upside in the stock of Apple (AAPL).  While mentioning that he expects Apple to sell 45 Million handsets next year.  45 MILLION.  I have not seen another analyst reporting a number that big.

Reports of manufacturing runs of 800,000 a WEEK being reported by several sources.

Munster mentioned Apples Back to School promotion which gives buyers a $299 incentive to purchase a Mac  (Free iPod woo hoo).

So I did some analysis of my own.  and projected out Sales thru 2014.  It is a Projection so by definition it will be wrong. 

Assumptions

• 15-20% annual price declines
• 10-15% cost declines
  
• iPhone kabuki deferred earnings
• 30% market share in 2014 (Nokia has 40% today you think thats going to hold?)
  
• 37% tax rate
• Declining growth in the Handset market 20-7%

I project Apple with 30% of the handset market in 2014.  (I made it up)  Nokia has 40% of the market currently so it is not unreasonable to assume that one company could have a share of that size.  There will be competition from someone we don't know who yet but someone will come up with a compelling competitor to the iPhone platform.

As a thought experiment Apples earnings per share could be 12 bucks a share from iPhone sales ALONE in 2014.  Oh and BTW 23 Billion in additional deferred earnings.  

Enjoy.

Let me know.  I can send you the Excel...

The writer has been long AAPL for a long time.  The writer is not giving advice (call your mother) am not telling you to buy this stock, and think that people that don't do their own research are lazy and doomed to failure